Currency Forecast

In a somewhat surprising move, the Fed has acknowledged recent disinflation trends and poured gasoline on the fire of easing expectations for 2024. The news has understandably been greeted by global...

The Fed decision is set to test market expectations of 125 basis point rate cuts in 2024, producing potential trading opportunities on GBP/USD or USD/JPY. The rate decision is a formality but the Fed...

It is now a very consensus view that the Fed will push back against rate cut expectations. We expect the Dot Plots will show only 50bp of cuts in 2024. Still, markets may feel less comfortable about...

The US dollar bounced back, ending a three-week decline, thanks to strong employment data and interest rate projections. Key economic indicators and central bank meetings, including the Fed, ECB, and...

As macro investors, we are often inundated with flashy headlines, and recently Japan has been front and center.Yet with all this noise, it’s easy to miss the forest for the...

The big yen rally has been exacerbated by positioning factors, but markets may keep speculating on a BoJ December hike unless Japanese officials protest against hawkish bets before the meeting. A...

Ahead of tomorrow's US jobs data release, the short-term highlight in the FX market is the continued outperformance of the yen. This has nothing to do with a risk-averse environment (asset markets are...

The EUR/USD faces a key test in the next week and a half. We will have lots of key data and rate decisions from both the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank to come during this period. Ahead of...

Gold has retreated after hitting all-time highs The yellow metal retreated as soon as sellers piled in to push the price lower Bulls need to hold their ground above $2020-30 to mount another attack on...

Markets have scaled back some dovish bets on the Fed at the start of this week, perhaps starting to position more cautiously ahead of a Fed pushback and key data releases. Today, JOLTS and ISM...

November brought a correction to the Dollar Index, and eventually, it found stability around the 103 level. EUR/USD on the other hand is awaiting signals from Lagarde's speech to determine next...

The dollar starts the week in a mixed fashion. USD/JPY is trading at a new corrective low, while EUR/USD continues to lick its wounds after a torrid session on Friday. The highlight of this week's...

OPEC+ and soft eurozone inflation triggered a dollar rebound yesterday, but short-term rate spreads were already pointing to a weaker EUR/USD before then. Today, the focus will be on the US ISM...

The further decline in USD rates means that it will now be up to activity data to trigger a recovery in the dollar. We have a couple of days packed with important US releases into the weekend, as well...