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Crude Oil Prices Rise as Stimulus Prospects Outweigh IEA Gloom

Published 20/01/2021, 03:09 am
Updated 20/01/2021, 03:15 am
© Reuters.

© Reuters.

By Geoffrey Smith 

Investing.com -- Crude oil prices rose on Tuesday, with renewed hope for U.S. demand under the influence of loose fiscal and monetary policy keeping prices well supported. Optimistic mood music from industry officials also helped, even though one influential think-tank revised down its outlook for global consumption this year.

By 11:30 AM ET (1630 GMT), U.S. crude futures were up 1.2% at $53.06 a barrel, while Brent crude, the global benchmark, was up 2.3% at $55.98 a barrel.

U.S. Gasoline RBOB Futures were up 0.9% at $1.5425 a gallon.

Risk assets of all stripes got a boost from the publication of Janet Yellen's prepared remarks for her confirmation hearing in the Senate for the job of Treasury Secretary, in which he stressed the need for the U.S. to "act big" on stimulus rather than risk a long-term scarring of the economy. 

Those comments were followed by a stream of more industry-specific optimism through an Atlantic Council conference featuring a number of high-ranking officials,. UAE Energy Minister Sultan al Jaber said he expects 2021 to be the "year of recovery" for the global oil market after last year's unprecedented collapse in demand - a collapse which still hasn't been reversed due largely to the unwillingness of people to travel by air. Al Jaber had repeated earlier in an interview with the Financial Times that he expects global oil demand to peak at 105 million barrels a day - well above the pre-Covid-19 level of just over 100 million barrels a day.

OPEC Secretary General Mohammed Barkindo told the same conference that "We all agree that the recovery is fragile, there are still more uncertainties, but we are cautiously optimistic that the recovery will materialize this year.” 

Even so, the market still faces short-term pressure from the surge in Covid-19 cases in many parts of the world, many of them due to new and often more transmissible strains of the virus. Germany earlier announced it will extend its current restrictions through February 14th, while millions still remain locked down in the Hebei province near Beijing.

The International Energy Agency revised down its forecast for oil consumption in the first quarter of this year by 600,000 barrels a day, due largely to such lockdown measures, which have been replicated across all of Europe. For 2021 as a whole, it trimmed its estimates for demand by 300,000 b/d. 

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