2 Banking Stocks That Could Surprise In This Falling Rate Environment
Investing.com | Oct 14, 2019 21:09
With the second-quarter earnings season getting into full gear in the next couple of weeks, the U.S.’s largest banks are the first to come under scrutiny.
Large banks’ earnings are considered to be a good barometer for the economy, as their earnings largely depend on the direction of interest rates, business investments and lending to retail borrowers. The Federal Reserve has cut interest rates twice since July to cope with the negative impact of the U.S. trade war with China.
Citing these headwinds, Citigroup Inc (NYSE:C), JPMorgan Chase & Co (NYSE:JPM) and Wells Fargo & Company (NYSE:WFC) signaled lower net interest income at the Barclays conference in September.
Across large U.S. banks, analysts’ average 2020 earnings-per-share estimates have dropped 9% since the start of the year, according to Autonomous Research, cited by the Wall Street Journal.
Investor sentiment toward banking stocks is also reflecting similar uncertainty. Financial-company stocks in the S&P 500 are up about 4.6% over the past year, compared with a 7.3% jump in the broader index.
In the coming week, investors will be looking for trouble spots as the biggest U.S. banks start reporting. In this domain, we’re focusing on the following two big names for possible buying opportunities after their earnings reports:
h2 1. Citigroup/h2Citigroup is one of our favorite stocks to consider if you plan to have some exposure to the banking sector. The lender has consistently shown that it can keep costs down and is capable of quickly adjusting to the changing market conditions.
When the lender reported its second-quarter earnings in July, it cut costs deeper than analysts expected, while its consumer division posted its strongest second quarter since 2013. Expenses fell 2%, also lower than what analysts had predicted.
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This strength is being reflected in Citigroup's (NYSE:C) shares, which have jumped about 35% this year — more than double the gains of the KBW Bank Index, which gained 15% in the same period. The stock rose more than 2% on Friday to close at $70.10.
The lender is scheduled to report on Tuesday and is expected to post $1.95 a share profit on revenue of $18.52 billion, according to analysts’ consensus estimate.
h2 2. JPMorgan Chase & Co./h2Wall Street’s powerhouse commercial and investment bank JPMorgan Chase & Co. is another stock to watch closely when it releases its Q3 earnings on Tuesday. Analysts on average expect $2.45 a share profit on sales of $28.46 billion.
Driven by strong loan growth and robust business in the lender’s flagship investment banking division, last year proved to be a great year for JPMorgan. The bank posted record net income—even when you take out the benefits of U.S. tax reforms.
The story is also quite encouraging in the first two quarters of this year. In Q2, JPM’s profit rose 16%, with the strong performance of its consumer businesses mainly offsetting a slowdown in the bank’s other units.
This earnings momentum has kept JPM shares well-supported this year. Trading at $116.14 at Friday's close, its stock is up almost 20% this year, against the 15% gain in the benchmark index.
Chief Executive James Dimon told analysts in the last conference call that the Fed’s rate cuts wouldn’t affect the bank’s expansion plans, including branch openings and technology spending — two areas which are likely to keep the lender’s spending higher.
Bottom Line
Due to their strong global presence, both Citi and JPMorgan are well-positioned to benefit if the U.S. and China are successful in ending their trade war and improving the global growth outlook. Both stocks are good buy-on-the-dip candidates even if their earnings tomorrow disappoint and trigger short-term weakness.
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