29.06.22 Macro Morning
Chris Becker | Jun 29, 2022 09:56
Risk sentiment soured with more downside volatility returning to equity markets overnight, not helped by a falling US consumer confidence print that doubled down with more Fed officials wanting big rate rises by the end of the year. Wall Street saw falls of 2-3% which are likely to be repeated in Asia today. The USD returned to strength against everything, with Euro put in its place while the Australian dollar was knocked back down to the 69 handle. Bond markets saw some roundtripping in yields, with 10 Year Treasuries hovering around the 3.2% level while interest rate futures lifted slightly to indicate 195 bps in rate rises by the Fed this year. Commodity prices were largely positive, with oil prices lifting more than 2%, although gold fell like the other undollars, heading back down to the $1800USD per ounce level.
Looking at share markets in Asia from yesterday’s session, where mainland Chinese share markets again pushed higher into the close with the Shanghai Composite finishing nearly 0.9% higher to close back above the 3400 point level while the Hang Seng Index had a similar move, up 0.8% gain to close at 22417 points. The daily chart is showing an attempt to breakout above the previous highs at the 22000 point level but I remain concerned with the overhead tails on these candles that matches the previous false breakout top. Nonetheless, momentum is nicely overbought and we’re seeing higher lows for now:
Gold still can’t get out of its sideways bearish oscillation with another unsteady session seeing it pushed right down to the $1820USD per ounce level as resistance firms quite strongly overhead at the $1850USD per ounce level. Daily momentum remains negative as four hourly momentum rolls back into the oversold zone, with the short term trend showing a series of lower low sessions, so watch for a breakdown shortly:
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