Apple Earnings To Show Weaker Demand, But Stock Remains A Favorite Growth Play
Haris Anwar | Jul 28, 2022 02:08
- Reports Q3 2022 results on Thursday, July 28, after the market close
- Revenue Expectation: $82.59 billion; EPS: $1.16
- Apple may face slowing demand for its products as consumers brace for a tough time
- Inflation
- Geopolitical turmoil
- Disruptive technologies
- Interest rate hikes
When Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) releases its latest quarterly earnings tomorrow, investors' primary focus will turn to the iPhone maker's ability to maintain growth momentum at a time when surging interest rates, a four-decade high inflation, and a threat of a recession are hurting consumer confidence.
The Cupertino, California-based Apple is a better play in an adverse economic backdrop mainly due to its wealthy and loyal consumer base—often seen as more resilient to macroeconomic headwinds. Still, the US's most valuable company can't claim to be completely immune from the economic headwinds.
Shares of Apple have weakened about 13% this year amid a broad market selloff. Still, this performance is much better than most of Apple's mega-cap counterparts, and the benchmark NASDAQ 100
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (NYSE:TSM), Apple's leading supplier of processors, recently warned that demand for PCs, smartphones, and consumer electronics is weakening amid inflationary pressures and after the pandemic-driven boom. However, Apple is likely to be less affected because the high-end market, where it sells, has been more resilient.
The company's fiscal third quarter results are expected to show a deceleration in sales growth. Analysts predict revenue will climb by about 2% from a year earlier, the slowest pace since 2020. Compare that with the 36% jump that Apple saw in the third quarter of 2021 when the pandemic-induced demand was fueling sales.
Analysts also expect $1.16 in earnings per share, which would be a 10.7% decline annually. The company said in April that gross margin should also decline from 43.7% last quarter to between 42% and 43%.
h2 China Disruptions/h2
Get The App
Slowing consumer demand isn't the only threat to this earnings report. During the past quarter, Apple also faced some COVID-related restrictions in China, a country with a massive assembly line and Apple's second-largest market.
In April, Apple warned it could lose between $4 billion and $8 billion in revenue from supply issues, including chip shortages and production snags.
These factors, including the weakening consumer demand and a strong US dollar, have led Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo, and other banks to cut their stock price targets for Apple by about $10 a share.
Nonetheless, the majority of analysts surveyed by stock a buy, implying a near 16.5% upside potential from current levels.
Source: Investing.com
According to JPMorgan's analysts in a recent note:
"We believe the resilience of the earnings estimates in the backdrop of macro deterioration, including both inflation and adverse FX, will continue to drive investors to prefer Apple with strong cash generation and balance sheet that will allow it to offset any earnings dilution on account of the macro through buybacks."
In April, Apple's board authorized $90 billion in additional share buybacks and dividends.
With the strength of its balance sheet and a robust capital-return program, Apple also has a strong lineup of new products in the coming months that could keep recession-weary consumers lured and revenue rolling in.
These products include iPhone 14 models, a new Apple Watch SE, an updated HomePod, a new Apple TV, updated iPad Pro models with an M2 chip, the long-anticipated mixed-reality headset, and a larger, 15-inch MacBook Air.
h2 Bottom Line/h2Apple earnings may feel the blow of a worsening economy and more cautious consumers. Despite this weakness, the company's stock remains one of the best names to own due to its strong cash-return plan and ability to bounce back quickly once the sailing gets smooth.
Disclosure: The writer is long on Apple.
***
The current market makes it harder than ever to make the right decisions. Think about the challenges:
To handle them, you need good data, effective tools to sort through the data, and insights into what it all means. You need to take emotion out of investing and focus on the fundamentals.
For that, there’s InvestingPro+, with all the professional data and tools you need to make better investing decisions. Learn More »
Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.