Oil looks very bullish and very bearish for everything else:
Base metals were mixed and miners (LON:GLEN):
EM stocks (NYSE:EEM) fell:
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The junk (NYSE:HYG) rebound is quite unconvincing:
As yields popped with oil:
Stocks fell hard:
The big release Friday night was US jobs and it was strong:
Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 390,000 in May, and the unemployment rate remained at 3.6 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Notable job gains occurred in leisure and hospitality, in professional and business services, and in transportation and warehousing. Employment in retail trade declined.
…The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for March was revised down by 30,000, from +428,000 to +398,000, and the change for April was revised up by 8,000, from +428,000 to +436,000. With these revisions, employment in March and April combined is 22,000 lower than previously reported.
The unemployment rate is almost back to pre-COVID levels but age growth is much higher:
If you believe Goldman, which is a questionable notion, then it’s going much higher:
My own view is that accelerated employment churn and over-hiring is distorting such leading indexes.
Even so, wages remain strong so there is still plenty of fodder here for the tightening Fed, backed up by the relentless oil price.
The US economy is unquestionably slowing but it is doing so without providing enough price pressure relief so far.
So long as that remains the case then expect DXY to be strong.
Written By:
David Llewellyn-Smith
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