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As the US curve inverts like a falling anvil:
This might be the dumbest stock market of my lifetime:
US data gave the Fed every reason to go 50bps at the meeting, which is now the favoured outcome in Fed funds futures. ADP was strong for jobs and wages:
Private sector employment increased by 242,000 jobs in February and annual pay was up 7.2 percent year-over-year, according to the February ADP® National Employment ReportTM produced by the ADP (NASDAQ:ADP) Research Institute® in collaboration with the Stanford Digital Economy Lab (“Stanford Lab”)
…“There is a tradeoff in the labor market right now,” said Nela Richardson, chief economist, ADP. “We’re seeing robust hiring, which is good for the economy and workers, but pay growth is still quite elevated. The modest slowdown in pay increases, on its own, is unlikely to drive down inflation rapidly in the near-term.”
JOLTS were strong:
The number of job openings decreased to 10.8 million on the last business day of January, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the month, the number of hires and total separations changed little at 6.4 million and 5.9 million, respectively. Within separations, quits (3.9 million) decreased, while layoffs and discharges (1.7 million) increased.
GDPNow is accelerating:
As is InflationNow:
The NFP comes Friday and it will be the decider but, right now, Fed 50bps is the new black, and AUD is the new red.
Written By:
David Llewellyn-Smith
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