Without China, EM (NYSE:EEM) may return to being the “Third World” asset class:
Junk (NYSE:HYG) yuk:
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US long yields took off:
Stocks finally cracked:
The proximate cause was the US Fitch downgrade, but the real problem for markets is that US growth is too strong relative to everywhere else.
ADP is still hot:
Private sector employment increased by 324,000 jobs in July and annual pay was up 6.2 percent year-over-year, according to the July ADP® National Employment ReportTM produced by the ADP (NASDAQ:ADP) Research Institute® in collaboration with the Stanford Digital Economy Lab (“Stanford Lab”).
NBS is Friday. If it is at all similar, then the earth is going to shake.
Meanwhile, Europe is a developing disaster:
And China is worse as the property adjustment shunts nominal growth lower permanently (chart is illustrative only):
The US economy was fortified by COVID-extended corporate liabilities. Bidenomics fiscally-charged growth. Mad stocks have inflated it further with robots super-long.
DXY can’t fall under these circumstances. It must rise. As it does, it will steamroll economies worldwide until enough deflation feeds back into the US for the FOMC to pivot.
A global recession is coming, and AUD is its whipping boy.
Written By:
David Llewellyn-Smith
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