Caution Ahead: Uncertainty Index Confirms What Bank CEOs Have Said on Q3 Calls

 | Oct 18, 2023 00:17

  • The LERI shows corporate uncertainty increasing to its highest level since the pandemic, in line with what bank CEOs have been sharing on Q3 calls

  • This week 460 companies are expected to report for Q3, 55 from the S&P 500 

  • Potential Surprises this week: Discover Financial Services

  • Peak weeks for Q3 season run from October 23 - November 10 

    • Big Banks Seem Resilient, but Worries Still Pervade /h2

    Third quarter earnings season is off and running, and a few big banks set the tone when they reported on Friday. JPMorgan Chase (NYSE:JPM), Citigroup (NYSE:C), and Wells Fargo & Company (NYSE:WFC) all beat top and bottom-line estimates, but despite robust results some of the commentary was cautionary.¹

    Higher interest rates continued to be a tailwind for banks in the third quarter, with increased net interest income making loans more profitable and helping boost the bottom line. In addition, the consumer has been surprisingly resilient despite these higher rates. There are signs that is starting to change, however.

    While higher net interest income has propped up banks this year, that is now being offset by the increased amount banks are having to pay for deposits as customers opt for higher-yielding instruments. Rising yields also cause the bonds owned by banks to fall in price. Although the consumer has kept up, there are signs that higher borrowing costs are starting to impact demand for mortgage and business loans as well as customers’ ability to repay credit card loans as seen by increasing delinquency rates and decreased overall savings. 

    These headwinds, along with geopolitical concerns made for some worrisome comments from bank CEOs. Possibly no more publicized than remarks from JPM CEO Jamie Dimon who commented

    “The war in Ukraine compounded by last week’s attacks on Israel may have far-reaching impacts on energy and food markets, global trade, and geopolitical relationships.”

    He went on to say,

    “This may be the most dangerous time the world has seen in decades. While we hope for the best, we prepare the firm for a broad range of outcomes.”²

    Additional warnings came from Citigroup’s CEO, Jane Fraser who remarked that “All of these macro dynamics have clearly impacted client sentiment,” as well as CEO sentiment saying she is “struck by how consistently CEOs are less optimistic about 2024 than a few months ago.” More on that in a minute as our proprietary Late Earnings Report Index (LERI) is suggesting the same.

    With only 6% of the S&P 500 reporting at this point, and 84% beating EPS expectations, the overall blended EPS growth rate improved to 0.4% from -0.3% the week prior.³ This would be the highest growth rate in a year. Leading sectors this quarter include Communication Services and Consumer Discretionary while Energy and Materials are expected to be laggards.

    It’s Official - US CEOs the Most Uncertain They’ve Been Since the COVID-19 Pandemic/h2

    Similar to some of the commentary we heard on Friday (October 13), the official pre-peak reading of the Late Earnings Report Index (LERI) released on that day also showed that CEOs continue to be hesitant ahead of the third quarter earnings season. 

    The Late Earnings Report Index tracks outlier earnings date changes among publicly traded companies with market capitalizations of $250M and higher. The LERI has a baseline reading of 100, anything above that indicates companies are feeling uncertain about their current and short-term prospects. A LERI reading under 100 suggests companies feel they have a pretty good crystal ball for the near-term.

    The current pre-peak season LERI reading stands at 120, the highest reading since the COVID-19 pandemic. As of October 13, there were 65 late outliers and 49 early outliers. Typically, the number of late outliers trends upwards as earnings season continues, indicating that the LERI is poised to get even worse from here as corporations are increasingly more worried heading into the second half of the year.