Gold Is At An Important Juncture

 | Aug 01, 2017 12:25

Originally published by AxiTrader

Gold reached a high of around $1,271 an ounce in US dollar terms last night. That's the highest level since mid-June as the US dollar selling continued.

What's interesting about gold's recent move is that while it has rallied around $66 an ounce in US dollar terms from the low in early-July - a gain of around 5.5% - gold's run has been far less spectacular in other currency terms.

Take XAU/EUR for example.

It made a low around $1056.50 in early July and is trading at $1071 this morning. That's a gain of just $14-odd dollars - a gain of 1.32%.

That's important for traders of XAU/USD - gold in US dollar terms - because it suggests there has been nothing intrinsically attractive about gold in its own right. No concerns about North Korea, no concerns about President Trump, no concerns about the more recent Russia-US diplomatic spat.

Rather the price divergence between US dollar gold and euro gold tells us this is just a US dollar move.

That suggests to me that the overhead trend line around $1274 will be a hard nut to crack unless the US dollar is about to have a further capitulation across the board. Of course that's possible. But, as regular readers know, I respect trendlines unless or until they break. And this one looks like an important line either way.

Here's the chart.