XAU/USD Pair
Investment Resources | Feb 06, 2017 23:51
Option 1
XAU/USD pair is currently in the wave 3 of the wave C in flat pattern.
This setting would take relatively short time to complete.
Probability: low-moderate
Although this setting is more likely from a statistical point of view, it doesn't seem to be fully in line with fundamentals that indicate a longer period of uncertainty. We are at the beginning of several processes (president Trump's policy implementation, Brexit, probable end of economic growth phase...) that are likely to bring about increased volatility of XAU/USD and we will likely see plenty of moves up and down in range 1050-1450 in the next 2-3 years. Therefore 'Option 2' or 'Option 3' is much more likely.
Option 2
XAU/USD pair is in wave c of the wave of the wave B of the wave (B) in flat pattern.
This setting would take medium time to complete.
Probability: moderate-high
Option 3
XAU/USD will evolve into a complex correction, such as double or triple flat pattern.
This setting would take medium to long time to complete.
Probability: moderate-high
Conclusion:
Regardless of which option becomes reality there is very high probability gold will increase its value against US dollar in the next 4-12 weeks before correction will take place.
The most probable level the pair is supposed to reach is somewhere around 1340 (10% increase) before changing its direction and correcting lower.
The pair will likely stay in range 1050-1450 in the next 12-36 months before possible final move higher (outside of the mentioned range) take place.
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Note: Analysis has been completed on daily charts
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