Market Looking Mighty Top Heavy
Jack Davis | Mar 03, 2017 12:47
Originally published by Chamber of Merchants
Good morning Patrons. If you want to see my portfolio change first, just scroll down to the bottom.
h2 Stock Market/h2I commented in recent days (as did the Speculator) that the stock market is looking mighty top heavy. At this moment, it appears that we may be witnessing a slight correction in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the Nasdaq 100 and the S&P 500:
This has been the reason why gold has been performing rather well as a safe haven asset, even though the US dollar has been rallying.
h2 Gold/h2Gold is currently dipping down around the $1230-$1234 area. The result is that the gold mining sector in the US is still experiencing a bearish sentiment where short sellers have control.
Here is the most recent gold action (It’s still 1 hour prior to US market close…I woke and couldn’t sleep again so…):
Gold is currently trading around $1233.
h2 Yen/h2Remember that gold is also under pressure due to yen (USD/JPY) weakness:
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Australian gold in the meantime has been holding around $1630 AUD due to the improving exchange rate:
As I said, over and over again, I was waiting for the US dollar to bounce/rally again… and here it is. US Dollar Index trading over 102.
Unfortunately, while gold has been holding up in its safe haven asset form, silver has taken a knock due to the dollar trading over 102 as well as the yen selling off:
Silver seems to be more sensitive to currency movements that gold at the moment. If you’re trading silver, keep your eye on the DXY and the yen. When those two currencies reverse, silver is most likely to bounce. But not sooner than that I expect.
h2 Gold Miners in the USA/h2So, even though the stock market seems to be threatening a correction and even though gold is now (as I type) $1234… the bears are still in control of the gold mining sector in the USA.
h3 Market Vectors Gold Miners (AX:GDX) (Gold miner’s index):/h3
Evidently, the gold mining sector is still bearish. To me it means that even though, logically, gold miners are a great buy, the bears are still in control which means that we may not have hit the bottom yet.
h2 Portfolio/h2Firstly, I entered Evolution Mining Ltd (AX:EVN) on Monday and sold EVN yesterday:
Same with St Barbara Ltd (AX:SBM):
Why did I sell?
I simply sold on the gap up as well as observing that the rally was based on a 1% rally in the US gold sector yesterday. So I did not feel that the gains were long lasting. And they weren’t.
I did buy 70k EVN shares at $2.14 yesterday again which was half a cent above the low of the day.
h2 Portfolio Change/h2After all the above, my approach is that even though I entered near the low of $2.14 in EVN (closed at $2.16)… I will be exiting the share at the open. That is because I am confident that the sentiment around gold miners is still bearish.
There is no point for me to hope the share price up when there is a strong negative selling pressure toward the sector.
The Australian gold price is fine, however the sentiment for miners has not yet recovered.
Therefore I will exit around the open and wait on the sidelines until I am confident in the trade.
I may be able to exit at the price I entered. I might exit slightly lower. A small loss means nothing in the bigger picture.
This may seem complicated, but for me it’s not.
My intention, once again, is to enter on the low of the day if possible in anticipation of an overall gold mining sector bounce.
Think Better. Trade Better.
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