NASDAQ 100: Is a Counter-Trend Rally Under Way?
Dr. Arnout ter Schure | Nov 11, 2022 07:13
Over the last two months, I have been tracking a possible ideal impulse move down for the NASDAQ 100, i.e., five waves lower as per the Elliott Wave Principle (EWP) , to ideally around $9,500. See Figure 1 below.
In my last update in October, I found:
“The NDX is still following an ideal Fibonacci-based impulse to the downside rather well. Therefore, the preferred view remains the index is still on target for ~$9,375+/-210. A break below last Friday’s low will strongly support this case. Conversely, a break back above the Sept. 6 low ($11,928) will throw a wrench in the bear’s work, with a severe warning above $11,642, and tell us the anticipated multi-month bear market rally challenging the August highs is already under way.”
Figure 1:
Although the index is still below the Sept. 6 low, it has not broken below the Oct. 13 low. A more complex red W-iv is still possible for the NDX. See Figure 2 below.
Meanwhile, the Dow Jones, S&P 500, Russell 2000 and semiconductors all already broke above their respective Sept. 6 lows telling us all these indexes are already in their “multi-month bear market rally challenging the August highs.”
Figure 2:
The Dow is now only 2% below that high, while the NDX is still 16% below. Hence, quite the bifurcation, but it also tells us it pays to look across markets to better understand what is going on overall.
Thus, because of the bifurcation, the more complex red W-iv shown in Figure 2 above is still possible on the NDX. But because all other indexes confirmed their anticipated counter-trend rally, the more complex W-a, b and c path shown in Figure 3 is now the preferred option. I have been tracking this option since late October, and it is playing out reasonably well, as anticipated (See here ).
Figure 3:
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Bottom Line
While the NASDAQ and the NASDAQ 100 are still below their respective Sept. 6 lows, all other four major U.S. indexes confirmed their anticipated multi-month counter-trend rallies when they broke above that significant level. The NDX can still try to reach the ideal $9,375+/-210 zone, but the odds of that are diminishing. Although the Sept. 6 low ($11,928) has not been broken yet, I am shifting focus for this index to the multi-month bear market counter-trend rally targeting $13,800-15,400. I can narrow this target zone once more price data becomes available.
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