Russell 2000 Eyes 200-DMA Test; S&P 500, Nasdaq Back Above Rising Trendline
Declan Fallon | Nov 06, 2023 18:25
On daily time frames markets had an excellent last week, but the large white candlestick on the weekly time frame after weeks of bearish red ones is not typically bullish or one that typically marks a bottom. Having said that, there is room for bulls to work with, and even if markets shift sideways from here I would still look at this as a positive.
The index I'm most concerned with is the Russell 2000 (IWM). Last week, I noted the June low support test and was of the opinion that it wouldn't hold. Well, buyers didn't listen and instead what emerged was a picture-perfect support test.
With that done, we are now looking at a probable test of the 200-day MA; to add to this, the 200-day MA will soon be subject to a bearish "Death Cross" relative to the 50-day MA - a long-term bearish factor. These are weekly time frame tests and whether upcoming tests are successful or not will be determined on this time frame.
The S&P 500 was an interesting case. It had lost trend support on generally bearish technicals, except, intermediate stochastics was at a point of a bull market oversold state, and it was these stochastics that came to mark support. The index was able to recover the rising trendline in a confirmed "bear trap".
The Nasdaq was the best positioned of the indexes from a bullish standpoint, and it was able to leverage this by generating its own "bear trap" from the test of the July 2022 swing high. It's trading above its 50-day and 200-day MA and is a long way from July 2022.
So as we head into this week and return focus to daily charts we will want to keep our attention focused on the big picture and the impact on the end-of-week close for these indexes. I wouldn't be surprised to see some early week comeback given last week's big gains, but if things stabilize later in the week it will give bulls something to work with in the following week.
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