S&P 500, Nasdaq Eye Breakout Above Moving Average; Russell 2000 to Continue Higher
Declan Fallon | Apr 30, 2024 20:14
The S&P 500 was most affected by the presence of converged 20-day and 50-day MAs as it finished Monday with a neutral 'doji' just below these moving averages.
The small gain was enough to generate a new 'buy' trigger in On-Balance-Volume, but the critical mid-line in Stochastics continues to play as resistance, and this means the bearish outlook is favored.
For today, I will be looking for some downside, but if the S&P 500 can close with another neutral candlestick - and not a big red one (or something better) - then we may have a more bullish response by the end of the week.
The Nasdaq had managed to do a little better, finishing above its 20-day MA, but not its 50-day MA. Yesterday's buying volume was enough to register the day as one of accumulation, backed by a new 'buy' trigger in On-Balance-Volume.
However, it too remains below the mid-line Stochastic and the 'black' candlestick finish is one often associated with reversal when it appears at the end of a rally. Watching for a gap down at the open.
The Russell 2000 (IWM) had the best of the day's action. It closed with a small, bullish candlestick above its 20-day MA. It still has some room to run to its 50-day MA, and yesterday's buying was enough to see a new 'buy' trigger in the MACD; although this signal occurred below the bullish zero line (so is not a strong buy signal).
Of the three indexes, it has the weakest Stochastics, although given stuck in a trading range since December 2023 this is not surprising. Relative buying volume was well below that of the Nasdaq and S&P 500.
My expectation for today is one for selling. If we don't see that, or even just a slightly lower close, then I would be optimistic for a break through the overhead 50-day MAs, opening up for a larger challenge of March highs. Let's see what today brings.
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