The Australian Dollar Is Defying The Odds
Axi | Aug 11, 2017 12:05
Originally published by AxiTrader
The Australian dollar failed above 79 cents yesterday making a high of 0.7910 before falling back to the 0.7870 region, where it sits as I write this morning.
Yet, even though the Aussie is lower, and still under technical pressure, it has held in relatively well given that we've seen a big increase in risk aversion as stocks came under heavy selling pressure and safe havens like the Swiss franc, Japanese yen, bonds, and gold caught a bid.
Historically under these circumstances, the Aussie would have also come under selling pressure.
So far however, the Australian dollar has outperformed usual expectations and its commodity cousins the kiwi and the Canadian dollar. AUD/NZD is this morning sitting above 1.08 and back above parity against the Canadian dollar.
That's not to say the Aussie is completely out of the woods. But it likely highlights that the Aussie dollar continues to have a host of fundamental drivers supporting it at the moment.
Not least of which is the outlook for the Australian dollar.
That makes RBA governor Phil Lowes address to, and questions from, the House of Representatives' Standing Committee on Economics and important even for the Aussie and forex traders today.
After seeing the effectiveness of Governor Wheeler's jawboning action on the Kiwi yesterday - when he said the bank would like a lower NZ dollar - will Lowe follow his colleagues over at the RBNZ and try and talk the Aussie lower.
The attractiveness of walking that route can't be overestimated. A subtle nudge in the current risk off environment from governor Lowe could be all that is needed to drive the Aussie back toward the 0.7750/7800 region.
Of course one big problem is the RBA's own very positive outlook for the economy which suggests 3% growth by the end of next year even with the "technical" assumption of an Aussie up near 80 cents.
But if questions give governor Lowe a chance to jawbone the Aussie lower, he would be mad not to take it.
Now for the price action.
The Aussie failed to break the 4-hour downtrend line I highlighted in yesterday's column twice over the past 24 hours. That reinforces the short term downtrend.
But it also seems like the AUD/USD has to break back below the low for the week around 0.7854 to really kick on and run for my slow moving average and the bottom of the Bollinger Bands which coincide around 0.7830/32.
That's still my base case technically with the 38.2% retracement of the recent rally from under 74 cents, which comes in at 0.7800 still in the frame. Below that the 0.7780 region holds the uptrend line from that move.
If the Aussie can break up and through 0.7920 it could be a sign the worm has turned given where the stochastic is right now.
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Here's the chart.
Have a great day's trading.
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