Traders React After Mnuchin Suggests The US Wants A Weaker Currency
Axi | Sep 01, 2017 13:10
Originally published by AxiTrader
Welcome to the Forex Today column.
In it, I'll be trying to add a bit more colour and a lot more charts than I do in my broader overnight Market Wrap I do first thing every morning to set myself and my trading up for each day and each week.
h2 RECAP/h2What's the unspoken secret about currency value we all know but pretend to be shocked when we hear it said out loud by a prominent official?
It's that a weaker currency can have benefits for an economy.
One of the reasons it's not often acknowledged - at less overtly - is that the global cooperative structure between governments and central banks requires that countries do not actively pursue competitive devaluations.
Which means the fact that US Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin almost cheered the weaker dollar last night is noteworthy. Certainly, forex traders didn't miss his point.
So this morning we have a euro 90 odd points off its lows sitting at 1.1912. We see the Canadian dollar is close to 190 points stronger against the US dollar this morning from last nights lows - USD/CAD is down at 1.2478. The yen, sterling, the Aussie, and even the kiwi which was getting hammered have all traded with a similar bounce pattern against the US dollar in the past 12 hours or so.
h2 HERE'S A DEEPER DIVE - IN A LITTLE MORE DETAIL AND WITH A FEW CHARTS/h2I'm going to repeat what I wrote in my overnight wrap earlier today about what Mnuchin said both because not everyone will read that and because it is important.
US Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin intimated something we all know, that the Administration probably doesn't mind a weak or weaker US dollar. Via the folks over at ForexLive I saw that Mnuchin told CNBC:
"Obviously, the short-term issues of the dollar have both positive and negative impacts for different parts of the economy...obviously, as it relates to trade, having a weaker dollar is somewhat better for us."
He did add the usual strong dollar mantra when he said: "I do think over long periods of time, the dollar's strength is an indication of the reserve currency and the confidence people have in the US economy".
And that folks is exactly the point. The dollar has been weak because the euro has been strong. The dollar has been weak because the US data flow was awful for months - the worst in the developed world. But equally the US dollar has been weak because there is a corner of the investment world that is questioning the very proposition of the US dollar's status over the long term under this president, this Administration, and what it has, and will, wrought.
I still believe the strength of the US economy, the Fed's normalisation process of monetary policy, and the real chance of tax cuts this year (something else Mnuchin suggested) will support the dollar.
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But for now it is weak again and that is causing problems - especially at the ECB.
Recall earlier this week I highlighted that Draghi would be tearing his hair out at the prospect of what a change to policy might do to the euro if saying nothing cause it to soar above 1.20. Last night we heard from sources within the ECB of just how that might affect policy.
Reuters reported that a source told it "the exchange rate has become a bigger issue. It is now less favourable for an exit and a stronger argument for a muddle-through option."
Another source said that "the huge appreciation in the euro is already causing monetary tightening and is equivalent to an increase in interest rates".
It is going to be an interesting meeting, decision, and announcement from the ECB next week. My bets on do as little as possible and talk the euro down.
Chart wise EUR/USD is at 1.1912 after trading down to a low around 1.1820/25. That means it held the support zone at 1.1800/15 I highlighted yesterday. I'm not overly bearish and see euro in a range now.
Non-farm could change that but only a break of 1.1660/80 would really change the outlook in a material way.
GBP/USD is likewise stronger this morning after a London market swoon - it's at 1.2937. 1.28-1.30 seems like the key levels to watch for this one.
USD/JPY is back around 110 now after it topped out at 110.66 overnight. A casual observance of the chart suggests it's still in a bottoming pattern and it needs to break up and through 111 to get moving.
On the commodity bloc, the Canadian dollar had a cracking reversal trading through a range of around 190 points Thursday. That was both because the US dollar turned around but also because of the very strong Canadian Q2 GDP data which lew through estimates of a 3.7% annualised pace with a print of 4.5% annualised.
Boom. And the Bank of Canada is back in play.
The high around 1.2660 gave way to a solid rally in the Canadian dollar which drove USD/CAD sharply lower. It's at 1.2479 now after having a massive outside day. 1.2400/20 is important support.
Of the anitpodeans, the Aussie is doing much better than the kiwi at the moment. Traders are fretting over the prospects that polls suggest prime minister English's government is in trouble at the election. I'm not exactly sure market need to fear Labour - but that seems to be the current excuse. And it's kept the kiwi under 72 cents at 0.7175.
Here's the weekly chart. You can see why last night's lows around 0.7130is important. The 200-day moving average comes in around 0.7129. That's the level to watch and which needs to hold.
I've done my normal Aussie dollar piece you can read here. One thing worth noting in the wash-up of the relative moves is that AUD/NZD to 1.1059. That's the highest levels since late April 2016.
Have a great day's trading.
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