Proactive Investors
Published Sep 21, 2023 09:42
Updated Sep 21, 2023 10:00
The morning catch up: Fed holds rates but markets slip on hawkish tone; ACCC blocks Transurban acquisition
Overnight, the Federal Reserve once again put the US cash rate on pause but hinted at one, possibly two, rate hikes to finish off 2023. The result: a subdued market which is likely to influence the ASX today.
Fed chair Jerome Powell said there was more work to be done on bringing inflation down.
“We want to see convincing evidence really that we have reached the appropriate level, and we’re seeing progress and we welcome that. But, you know, we need to see more progress before we’ll be willing to reach that conclusion,” Powell said.
On the back of that news, ASX 200 futures are trading 22 points lower, down -0.31% as of 8:20 am AEST ahead of detailed labour force data to be released today.
What happened overnight?
Here's what we saw (source Commsec):
US markets
Were mixed on Wednesday on confirmation by the Federal Reserve that rates would stay unchanged for now. Investors were encouraged by forecasts that suggest a 'soft landing' for the US economy with the jobless rate remaining low.
Shares in megacap technology stocks were weaker. The share prices of two entrants eased with Instacart (NASDAQ:CART) down 10.7% and Arm Holdings (NASDAQ:ARM) fell by 4.1%. Shares in Coty rose 4.5% after the CoverGirl parent raised its sales forecast.
Were firmer on Wednesday ahead of the US central bank decision. Investors were encouraged by the news that the UK inflation rate eased from 6.8% to 6.7% in August.
Eurozone banks lifted 2% as Italy's UniCredit soared by 4.7%. Shares in Germany's Commerzbank (ETR:CBKG) said it expected to earn net interest income of 8 billion euros (US$8.5 billion) this year. But weighing on investor sentiment, data showed that Germany's producer prices posted the biggest year-on-year decline on record (since 1949).
Oil prices eased on Wednesday on expectations that US interest rates would be higher for longer. US crude inventories fell in line with expectations last week.
ACCC blocks Transurban
The Australian Competition & Consumer Commission (ACCC) is standing in the way of Transurban Group (ASX:TCL)’s acquisition of a majority interest in Horizon Roads.
The regulator concluded that the transaction could substantially lessen competition for future toll road concessions in Victoria.
“The proposed acquisition would result in Transurban entrenching its position in Victoria and prevent the entry of a rival operator which could compete closely for future toll road concessions in Victoria. Transurban would operate every single private-sector controlled toll road in Australia,” ACCC chair Gina Cass-Gottlieb said.
Oil benchmark increased
Goldman Sachs (NYSE:NYSE:GS) has increased its 12-month-ahead Brent forecast from $US93 a barrel to $US100/bbl.
“The key reason is that significantly lower OPEC supply and higher demand more than offset significantly higher US supply. Overall, we believe that OPEC will be able to sustain Brent in an $US80-$US105 range in 2024 by leveraging robust Asia-centric global demand growth (1.8mb/d) and by exercising its pricing power assertively.
“Specifically, we now assume Saudi Arabia unwinds the extra 1mb/d cut gradually starting in 2024Q2, but that the 1.7mb/d cut with 8 other OPEC+ countries remains fully in place next year.
“We believe that most of the rally is behind us and that Brent is unlikely to sustainably exceed $US105/bbl next year.
“We also believe that Brent is unlikely to sustainably drop below $US80/bbl next year because of the strong OPEC put. Moreover, Western energy policy now has less room left to fight high prices given declines in the SPR and in Iran spare capacity. Third, we remain on track for a soft landing despite the oil rally.”
What about small caps?
The S&P/ASX Small Ordinaries fell 0.46% to 2,752,10 yesterday, however remains 0.08% to the green over the last five trading days.
It has been a slow news morning, but you can read about the following and more throughout the day.
Read more on Proactive Investors AU
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