DXY eased last night:
JPY roared on hopes of shock rate hikes. Forlorn, in my view. AUD popped:
Oil stopped falling for the day:
Dirt kept going:
Miners popped:
EM doom:
Junk better:
Treasuries sold as stocks harked back to the AI boom:
Tonight’s jobs report shapes as better post-car strikes.
From BofA economists:
“Nonfarm payroll employment likely rose by 200k in November following a 150k increase in October. The main factor behind the acceleration relative to September is that two major strikes ended ahead of the November survey period. … On the household survey, we expect the labor force participation rate to be unchanged at 62.7% as we believe cyclical gains to participation rate are diminishing. Given this and our expectation for fairly strong employment growth, we forecast the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 3.9%, though there is a risk that it rounds down to 3.8%.”
From Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS):
“We estimate nonfarm payrolls rose by 238k in November, above consensus … Alternative measures of employment growth indicate another month of robust job growth on average, government hiring likely remained strong, and layoffs remain low. … We estimate that the unemployment rate declined to 3.8%.”
As a rule, I do not bet on employment reports. They are simply too volatile.
The AUD will fly if it is weak and fall if it is strong.