Anticipating the Shift in AUD/USD Ahead of Australia's Retail Sales
Thursday’s agenda brings preliminary findings of May's seasonally adjusted retail sales in Australia to the market spotlight. Predictions point towards a slight rise from previous stagnant growth, with an anticipated increase to 0.1% MoM.
This time around, Australian retail data holds greater significance for the AUD/USD currency pair due to recent unexpected bullish signals by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), coupled with new policy shift discussions backed by disappointing Aussie inflation figures.
ANZ analysts expressed uncertainty ahead of this release, highlighting that while they expected volatility following AU CPI data, it did not provide clear indications about potential RBA actions and their impact on the AUD and Kiwi currencies.
However, traders' focus will likely remain more attuned toward Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's upcoming speech in Madrid and the Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index for May – known as the Fed’s favorite measure of inflation.
Japanese Retail Sector Flourishes Amidst Returning Tourists & Domestic Demand
May brought encouraging news for Japan as retail sales surged upward by 5.7%, marking fifteen consecutive months of progress which aligns closely with median market predictions forecasting a gain of 5.4%.
A stronger-than-anticipated rebound was observed in Japanese retail sales during May owing largely to returning tourists aiding economic revival alongside robust domestic demand. Spending rose higher than economists predicted - up by 1.3% since April buoyed primarily by car purchases alongside medical goods and cosmetics while food items also saw increased spending. This surge is attributed partially to ongoing inflation lingering over 3%.
Economists believe these promising figures reflect increased overseas tourism helping Japan fend off global economic slowdown impacts despite growing at a slower pace than in earlier quarters. Yuichi Kodama from Meiji Yasuda Research Institute acknowledged potential padding through inflated numbers but admitted resilient private consumption exceeded expectations amid thriving inbound tourism projected return pre-pandemic levels before year-end thus driving the economy forward.
With pandemic-related border restrictions lifted foreign visitors are flocking back into Japan likely spurred further thanks to the recent yen depreciation against the dollar boosting tourist expenditure power. Visitor arrivals almost reached pre-crisis levels reaching nearly seventy percent according to Japan National Tourism Organization hinting at possible growth spurts future especially considering last quarter witnessed visitor spending nearing ninety percent compared to pre-pandemic totals according to Japan Tourism Agency reports.
Domestic consumers face contrasting scenarios where increasing wages are offsetting persistent sticky inflation outpacing salary increments adding complexity picture awaiting key indicators including Tokyo-based price measures national factory output Friday which the Bank Of Japan relies upon chart course monetary policies amidst continued easing efforts buck trend global monetary tightening aimed cooling off rampant inflation.
Vietnam Poised For Steady GDP Growth Fueled By Services Sector Recovery
Singapore-based research firm Maybank predicts Vietnam's second-quarter GDP growth will hover around five percent this year before slowing down slightly to four percent next year then bouncing back again to six percent come year-end twenty-four led service sector makes up forty-three-point one percent country overall GDP forecast experience seven-percent expansion second quarter twenty-three driven resurging sectors like accommodation catering entertainment passenger transport all benefiting revived tourism scene.
Industry construction sectors making thirty-six-point seven percent of total GDP projected to grow two-percent rate compared same period the previous year however manufacturing production continues to struggle with weak external demand.
But brighter prospects seen within the construction arena expected to flourish rising public investment infrastructure projects coupled with Vietnamese government initiatives to restart real estate ventures.
Mayback experts anticipate exports continue a downward trend latter half of twenty-three resulting in global deceleration whereas internal consumption may see a slump in the coming months facing a weakened labor market backdrop.