Originally published by CMC Markets
A sinking US dollar continues to light a fire under other currencies. Gold and Singapore dollar have broken out while yen and Australian dollar are taking runs at recent highs. Euro is climbing against the US dollar and yen following the ECB meeting and indications an announcement on tapering could come in October. The kiwi dollar, however, continues to underperform on pre-election jitters with polls still showing Labour in the lead.
Asia Pacific Indices
The S&P/ASX 200 is trading near 5,700, the middle of a 5,600 to 5,800 trading range. Within this channel, the index has been drifting lower. RSI under 50 and a potential death cross of the 50-dqay average below the 200-day suggest distribution.
The Nikkei 225 Appears to be resuming its downswing with the index dropping back toward 19.430 after running into Fibonacci and 200-day average resistance near 19,490. RSI under 50 indicates ongoing distribution although downward pressure may be easing. Initial support near 19,380 then 19.240.
The Hang Seng ran into resistance at a lower high near 27,830 and has dropped back toward 27,625. RSI falling toward 50 indicates upward momentum fading and a downturn pending. Next potential support near 27,480 a Fibonacci test then 27,045 near the 50-day average.
North American and European Indices
The Nasdaq 100 continues to consolidate recent gains between 5,900 and 6,000 where the index recently completed a bull trap peak and a double top. RSI holding 50, however, indicates underlying accumulation continues.
The FTSE 100 is holding steady between 7,350 and 7,400 just below the middle of a 7,300 to 7,550 trading range. RSI bouncing around 50 confirms sideways momentum.
The DAX broke out today, clearing 12,300 to complete a base that formed above 12,000 and confirming the start of a new uptrend. The index has advanced toward 12,320. Support rises toward 12,240 with next potential resistance near 12,450 then 12,500. Rising RSI confirms increasing upward momentum.
Commodities
Gold broke out again Thursday, clearing $1,344 and advancing on $1,350. Next potential resistance near a measured $1,366. Support moves up toward $1,332. RSI overbought but confirming upward momentum for now.
WTI crude oil ran into resistance at its 200-day average near $49.30 with more possible near the $50.00 round number. The price has dropped back toward $48 80 in a normal trading correction with next downside support possible near $48.55 then $47.80.
FX
The US Dollar Index remains under distribution, with the index sinking back under 92.00 and a falling RSI confirming increasing downward pressure. Next potential support near 91.50 then 90.00 where a round number and measured move converge.
EUR/USD could be forming a top as the pair peeked above $1.2000 but failed to overcome $1.2075 resistance once again. Lower highs in the RSI suggest slowing upward momentum. Initial support near $1.1985. Next resistance if it manages to break out possible near a measured $1.2150.
GBP/USD continues to climb with support moving up toward $1.3060 from $1.3000 and the pair advancing on $1.3090 with next potential resistance near $1.3150 a Fibonacci level. RSI back above 50 and rising confirms upward momentum accelerating.
NZD/USD is sending mixed signals. The pair remains in a downtrend of lower highs but RSI nearing 50 suggests downward momentum slowing. Support has moved up toward $0.7190 from $0.7130. Initial resistance appears near $0.7265 then $0.7300.
AUD/USD is consolidating its recent breakout over $0.8000, trading near $0.8045 just below its July high near $0.8065. Next measured resistance on a breakout possible near $0.8100 then $0.8180. RSI above 50 and rising indicates accelerating accumulation.
USD/SGD is breaking down in a major way today, taking out $1.3500 and diving down toward $1.3395. Next potential support dating back to 2016 lows appears near $1.3335 then $1.3310.
USD/JPY remains under distribution falling from a lower high near 109.10 toward 108.45 with next support near 108.10 then 107.60 on a breakdown. RSI falling away from 50 confirms increasing downward pressure.
GBP/JPY continues to consolidate between 141.20 and 143.00 with RSI sitting on 50 confirming sideways momentum. Next resistance near 143.30 with next support near 140.40.
EUR/JPY continues to form an ascending triangle of higher lows below 131.85. The pair has held above 130.00 and its 50-day average along with 50 on the RSI indicating continuing accumulation.
USD/CAD is having an inside day near the bottom of Wednesday’s breakdown range. A positive RSI divergence and oversold conditions indicating the potential for a pause or bounce in the short term. Initial resistance near $1.2245 and $1.2300 with next support possible near $1.2130 then $1.2030.