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Ocado Group PLC (OCDO)

London
Symbol
Exchange
Currency
OCDOLondonGBP
OCDOlBATS EuropeGBP
OCDGFOTC MarketsUSD
OCDOFrankfurtEUR
Currency in GBP
Disclaimer
350.00
+6.90(+2.01%)
Closed

OCDO Comments

More interesting figures from the 2014 Financial report.. . The Chief Exec review states that Ocado will employ 11000 by end of 2015, up from 8500 at end 2014. Payroll cost in 2014 was £190m, so the increase in numbers implies an increase in payroll cost of £60m. If sales are up by 15% then EBITDA will only go up by say, £12m, so that means a huge, huge loss in 2015. . Looking at the cash flow, there is going to be capex of £150m in 2015. Net debt was £99m at end of 2014, so by end of 2015 the value of the business (218m at end 2014) is likely to be less than the total debt. . To my mind it's like owning a house that's worth less than the mortgage and borrowing more on top to pay the interest. . I say sell
Looking at the next announcement on 11th Sept, of sales for the 3 months to end August I've been looking at shopping price baskets as reported by Which for June-July 14, compared with the same months in 2013. The Which monthly basket costs for Ocado, Tesco, Waitrose and Sainsbury are all down by 9 to 10%. For Ocado the basket cost drops from £212 to £191, or 10.3%.. . Ocado sales growth for 3 summer months of 2013 over 2012 was 16%. If the Which averages carry through to 2014 sales, it could mean only 6% growth on the underlying Ocado business. Even if you add in 5% for fees from the deal with Morrison it's 11%, but then again the MRW contribution must have been expected to be additional, as opposed to being needed to get to a respectable number. And this is just the top line impact without discussing margins.. . Please correct me if my numbers or assumptions look wrong
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